As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events continue to rise globally, the need to develop robust forecasting and preparedness strategies becomes ever more crucial, especially for least-developed countries that often lack the necessary infrastructure and resources to mitigate these impacts. In these vulnerable regions, high-impact weather events such as severe storms, flash floods, and droughts can lead to devastating consequences, including loss of life, economic setbacks, and long-term displacement of communities. Improving our ability to predict and respond to such extreme weather events is not just a matter of technological advancement but a critical step towards ensuring the safety and resilience of populations most at risk. To reduce the negative effects of weather-related disasters and support decision-making at different levels, improved National Meteorological Hydrological Services (NMHS) and robust early warning systems for high-impact weather are fundamental.
Nowcasting, defined as the forecasting of weather conditions over very short timescales ranging from a few minutes to several hours, is particularly valuable for issuing timely warnings. There are numerous nowcasting methods, ranging from simple techniques like the extrapolation of radar precipitation echoes to more sophisticated systems that integrate outputs from feature detection and nowcasting algorithms with rapidly updating displays of observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs.
Due to the transient nature and smaller scale of certain weather phenomena, such as tornadoes, microbursts, and highly precipitating systems, the selection of nowcasting techniques for intense or severe weather warnings often depends on the specific characteristics of these events; in these instances, simple extrapolation techniques are frequently used. For weather phenomena with longer durations and larger spatial extents, nowcasting systems have been developed to utilize observations in combination with NWP forecasts, extending the nowcast guidance out to 6 hours.
Training students in these diverse techniques is crucial to equip the next generation of meteorologists with the skills necessary to provide accurate and timely weather warnings, especially as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. We will offer participants the opportunity to take an active role in improving operational Weather Forecasting services provided by their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, moving between roles with a focus on research, development, and operational delivery, as well as improving communication skills. We understand meteorologists should improve their attributes to provide more complex and multifaced products with increased complexity and accurate information toward an impact-based forecast product.
Expected Learning Outcomes
By the end of the course, the students will have successfully achieved the following outcomes:
• Provide students with the theoretical knowledge to understand the dynamic and thermodynamic processes that promote, control, and sustain the formation of precipitating systems in tropical and mid-latitudes.
• Raise awareness of the importance of understanding the limitations of remote sensors in studying precipitating systems that generate high-impact meteorological phenomena, to encourage a critical use of their products and a deeper understanding of the current limits of the state of the art in science.
• Promote the critical analysis of the results from observational analyses of meteorological information, nowcasting, numerical and statistical forecast models, remote sensors, and their applications in precipitating systems in tropical and mid-latitudes.
