This EPESC – LEADER Science Meeting will bring together the wider scientific community working on these two key WCRP activities to share and discuss emerging topics and issues on the design and delivery of an integrated capability for quantitative observation, explanation, early warning and prediction of Earth System Change on global and regional spatial scales and annual to decadal (A2D) timescales. Both groups will share insights from analysis of large ensembles of climate model experiments to advance understanding and attribution of dynamically-driven extremes. One key goal is communication and enhanced collaboration across the three EPESC Working Groups. Sessions are being planned to share the work and address the needs of each of the Working Groups.
Goals
– To bring together the full EPESC and LEADER communities for cross-working group coordination and pollination of ideas, approaches and results.
– To share progress on understanding the role of external forcing and internal variability in different regions of the world, and exchange ideas on overcoming challenges in assessing and attributing natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate hazards.
– To share research using the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) to diagnose circulation responses to model forcing, the role of model error, and the predictability of large-scale circulations.
– To advance the vision of operationalization of decadal forecasts, and build towards the vision of an integrated capability for attribution, early warning and prediction of Earth System Change on global and regional spatial scales and annual to decadal (A2D) timescales.
